The Governance Research Bureau has predicted a run-off in the upcoming 2020 Presidential election.
According to the bureau, its research concludes that none of the Presidential candidates is estimated to poll more than 50 per cent of the votes.
“Based on its analysis of EC certified results since 1992 and the 2020 voters register, the Bureau estimates that the NPP’s Nana Akufo Addo will poll 49.19 per cent (8,389,273 votes) with NDC’s John Mahama taking 48.27 per cent (8,233,881 votes) while the Others make do with 2.54 per cent (433,257 votes),” a statement from the GRB said.
The bureau indicated that the statistical tool used for the prediction was the Generalised Linear Model (GLM) whose dependent variable is the percentage of votes likely to be obtained by the parties with the independent variables being the Constituency and Parties.
Though other researches and predictions have put the New Patriotic Party’s Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo in the victory line at a go, the Governance Research Bureau has said its analysis show a 95 per cent confidence interval estimate for the percentage of votes for the NPP has a lower limit of 47.69 per cent (8,134,646 votes) and upper limit of 50.68 per cent (8,646,900 votes). The NDC has a lower limit of 46.80 per cent (7,983,123 votes) and upper limit of 49.74 per cent (8,484,639 votes) while the Other parties have a lower limit of 1.92 per cent (326,964 votes) and an upper limit of 3.16 per cent (539,550 votes).
“The model also predicts that the bulk of Nana Addo’s votes will come from the Western, Ahafo, Bono, Ashanti, and Eastern regions with a performance rating of 53.45 per cent, 52.83 per cent, 56.18 per cent, 72.40 per cent, and 56.97 per cent respectively.
For John Mahama, the Western North, Volta, Oti, Upper West, Upper East, Northern, North East, Savannah and Bono East regions are projected to give him 60.16 per cent, 90.39 per cent, 66.97 per cent, 61.33 per cent, 62.55 per cent, 59.28 per cent, 49.07 per cent, 61.88 per cent and 56.59 per cent of the votes respectively.”
